Economic growth amid high interest rates depends on two major factors: rising productivity and growth in the labor supply. … READ MORE >
USA
Morning market minute: Tariffs and the rising dollar
With steep tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China set to begin Tuesday, one should expect the greenback to continue is ascent against major trading currencies. … READ MORE >
How an escalating trade war will affect global growth, inflation and employment
If the tariffs stick, they will trim 0.36 percentage points from U.S. GDP growth over the next 12 months, and PCE inflation will increase by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What guacamole tells us about the cost of tariffs
Whether you make guacamole from scratch, as my grandmother Juanita liked to do, or buy pre-made spicy guacamole from Central Market in Austin, Tex., it’s going to cost more. … READ MORE >
Trump, tariffs and financial markets
Tariffs cannot be both a negotiating tactic and an offset that raises revenues to finance tax cuts. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Jan. 27, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here’s the latest. … READ MORE >
U.S. households show robust gains on spending and income
Robust income and spending gains continue to underscore a strong economy that is benefiting not only from real income gains but also from rising equity and home prices. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: FHA loan demand shows rising stress among homebuyers
While conventional home loans still make up approximately 60% of all loans, purchasing a home at this point is financially out of reach for a growing percentage of the population. … READ MORE >
Robust household consumption supports 2.3% GDP growth
We expect growth this year to expand at a 2.5% pace with risk of a quicker pace of expansion—above 3%—as the economy continues to outperform its global peers. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing currency risk in an era of regime change
We expect the international investment community to continue purchasing U.S. financial assets, and in particular to continue financing the U.S. budget and trade deficits. … READ MORE >