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Initial jobless claims rise to 230,000

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First-time jobless claims increased to 230,000 for the week ending April 26, well above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average of 217,100.

A look at the individual state count indicates no significant deviations from the mean, thus we think that the top-line advance is simply more noise than signal. We anticipate first-time claims to drift down toward the 13-week moving average over the next few weeks. The top-line data will not influence the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of April employment because the reference week for the estimate ended April 13.

Continuing claims, a solid forward-looking indicator of the unemployment rate, declined to 1.7 million for the week ending April 13, from 1.72 million for the week ending April 6, and down from 1.862 million one year ago. Based on this data we are keeping our forecast of the April unemployment rate at 3.8 percent. The BLS releases April data on Friday.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.