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Initial jobless claims rise to 230,000

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First-time jobless claims increased to 230,000 for the week ending April 26, well above our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average of 217,100.

A look at the individual state count indicates no significant deviations from the mean, thus we think that the top-line advance is simply more noise than signal. We anticipate first-time claims to drift down toward the 13-week moving average over the next few weeks. The top-line data will not influence the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of April employment because the reference week for the estimate ended April 13.

Continuing claims, a solid forward-looking indicator of the unemployment rate, declined to 1.7 million for the week ending April 13, from 1.72 million for the week ending April 6, and down from 1.862 million one year ago. Based on this data we are keeping our forecast of the April unemployment rate at 3.8 percent. The BLS releases April data on Friday.

About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joseph Brusuelas provides macroeconomic perspective to help RSM clients anticipate and address the unique issues and challenges facing their businesses and the industries in which they operate. In 2015, he helped launch The Real Economy, the only monthly economic report focused on the middle market, and helps lead the firm’s cutting-edge Industry Eminence Program.

Prior to joining RSM as chief economist, Joe was a senior economist at Bloomberg, LP and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group. During that time, he was named one of the 26 economists to follow by the Huffington Post. Joe has over 20 years of experience in finance and economics, with emphasis on analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

In addition to being a frequent author for RSM and media, Joe Brusuelas is the co-author of Forex Analysis and Trading: Effective Top-Down Strategies Combining Fundamental, Position, and Technical Analyses.