FEATURED
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. ... READ MORE >
Main Content
Morning market minute: Do frothy financial markets present risk in 2025?
It is said that the economy is not the stock market. That is true; however, the stock market is critical to supporting household spending. In our contemporary K-shaped economy, paying close attention to the link between equity market valuations and their impact on overall household spending is one important way to monitor risk to the economic outlook in 2025. … READ MORE >
Trudeau’s resignation spurs uncertainty across Canada’s economy
For nearly a decade, Canada’s political stability helped attract foreign investments. Justin Trudeau’s resignation ushers in a new wave of uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: US term premium and higher yields
The decomposition of bond yields rests on two factors: first, expectations, or the average of future short-term interest rates; and second, a term premium that reflects compensation demanded by investors to hold riskier long-term bonds. Given that expectations are anchored by Federal Reserve policy guidance, approximately 80% of the recent increase in yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury can be attributed to the term premium, with only 20% credited to changing expectations of where short-term rates will be over the next 10 years. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since April
Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 211,000 for the last week of December, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >