U.S. bonds have experienced notable volatility that is most likely establishing a new center of gravity in markets. The result could be higher rates ahead even as growth slows and inflation rises. … READ MORE >
10-year Treasury
Defense buildup in Europe points to a broader fiscal realignment
The financial implications of higher European defense spending implies that a broader fiscal realignment could take place. That is what is behind the rising equity valuations and the rise in the benchmark German 10-year yield. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Money markets signal an easing in 10-year yields
A look at the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in comparison with the Treasury term premium implies room for further easing in long-term yields. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing currency risk in an era of regime change
We expect the international investment community to continue purchasing U.S. financial assets, and in particular to continue financing the U.S. budget and trade deficits. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >