The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved substantially lower after talks between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar were reported to offer options for the transition of Northern Ireland from the common market into Britain’s single market. Though details were still to be worked out, the positive developments allowed negotiations to resume in Brussels over England’s looming departure from the European Union. … READ MORE >
Brexit
RSM Brexit Stress Index higher as global uncertainty hits home
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose in a week that included the European Union’s rejection of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal proposal and the equity market’s recognition of the adverse effects of disruptions to trade. … READ MORE >
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos.
The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above normal levels of stress, down from last week’s close at 1.27. While stress remains high, it has retreated from the extreme levels of earlier this month when a constitutional crisis and a clumsy exit appeared inevitable. … READ MORE >
Brexit stress rises amid Bank of England’s caution
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose slightly during a week that included conciliatory tones regarding proposals for a Northern Ireland economic zone, the High Court’s hearings over the suspension of Parliament and the Bank of England warning that continuing anxiety over Brexit and global trade disputes are taking their toll on the economy. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Reacting to a Parliamentary dose of recession prevention
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged sharply during the week amid attempts by Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party prime minister, to curtail objections to a no-deal Brexit but eased at week’s end as Parliament regained control of government. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index posts highest level since June 2016 referendum
The RSM Brexit Stress Index reached its highest level since the U.K.’s June 2016 referendum to leave the European Union, closing at 1.93, up 8 points on Tuesday from 1.85 a week earlier, amid instability in the U.K. government. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index surges on likelihood of “no deal” Brexit
The RSM Brexit Stress Index rose to record highs on Wednesday, following news that the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson had received the okay to suspend Parliament just weeks ahead of a deadline for the U.K. to chart its path for withdrawal from the European Union. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index: Factoring in dual recessions
The RSM Brexit Stress Index held relatively steady this week, maintaining high levels of stress as Germany’s manufacturing recession came front and center for the foreign exchange market.
The composite index, which measures economic stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed at 1.64 on Friday from 1.69 a week earlier and still significantly above normal levels. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Increased volatility and higher stress as pro-Brexit PM takes Britain’s helm
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher this week on increased currency market volatility and sobering economic news from the UK’s trading partners as Boris Johnson, the pro-Brexit Conservative Party candidate, was elected prime minister. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Adding to the list of unintended consequences
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved higher again this week, as the market processed conflicting central banking trends: global equities pushed higher on an expected U.S. rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a quick turnaround in the U.K. bond market as the slim probability of a base rate cut by the Bank of England grew even smaller. … READ MORE >