Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. This forecast accounts for an expectation of higher import taxes in the U.S. market, particularly for goods that flow through Chinese supply chains. Developed ... READ MORE >
Canada
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
A blanket tariff by the U.S. on Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize early next year despite rhetoric from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. Still, the mere prospect of new tariffs has caused considerable anxiety in Canada. Such a move would have dire economic implications on both ... READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
(Editor's note: This post has been updated with the latest from the federal government's fall economic statement) Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing uncertainty in the country's political environment as financial challenges loom in 2025. Reaction was ... READ MORE >
How Canadian real estate leaders can adapt and succeed in a volatile 2025
Canadian real estate leaders must decide how to act in 2025 as further interest rate cuts loom, stricter immigration policies take effect and the federal government’s 10-year bonds are up. Real estate leaders view these challenges through a lens of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 per cent within the ... READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
Canada added 51,000 jobs in November, double the expected number, but the overall picture does not look rosy. The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017 — as more people looked for work. A slow job market finally hit wages, as wage growth ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada preview: A rate cut is desperately needed
The Bank of Canada needs to announce rate cuts during its June 5 meeting to spur economic growth. Any further delay and the bank would risk making a policy error and undermining Canada’s growth outlook. A 25-basis-point rate cut would kickstart the easing cycle, which will unfold gradually over the ... READ MORE >
Workforce, trade, capital: Conference highlights top manufacturing sector issues in Canada
Workforce dynamics, productivity, advanced technology investments and trade policies are some of the critical issues defining the future of Canada’s manufacturing sector, as highlighted at the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters 2023 National Manufacturing Conference in early November. The ... READ MORE >
UAW strike and Unifor bargaining: Impact on Canada’s auto sector
As the United Auto Workers strike in the United States makes headlines, automakers have also been renegotiating labor contracts with Canadian union Unifor, which represents 20,000 auto workers. Given the deep interconnectedness of the U.S.-Canada automotive supply chain, any U.S. disruptions are bound ... READ MORE >
Soft landing likely as Canada added 40,000 jobs in August
A look at August’s job report reveals clear signs of a soft landing. Canada added 40,000 jobs, smashing expectations, and offset the modest loss in July many times over. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%, according to data released on Friday by Statistics Canada. Immigration has played a ... READ MORE >