A decline in retail spending in July may signal a shift in spending habits as consumers straddle a strengthening economy and virus-related concerns. Retail sales declined 1.1% in July compared to June, with the biggest decreases coming from motor vehicle and parts dealers, as well as non-store retailers (a proxy for e-commerce), which declined 3.9% and ... READ MORE >
chart of the day
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer confidence is sign of good things to come
The June reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is a sign of good things to come with respect to hiring and spending in months ahead. The index increased to 127.3 in June from a revised up 120 in May. The topline index is traditionally interpreted as a forward-looking indicator of consumer spending and is very sensitive to employment ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Fed projects U.S. will reach pre-pandemic goals by end of 2022
The Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly projections for economic growth, unemployment and inflation suggest the economy will be back on track and meeting pre-pandemic expectations by the end of 2022. This should play a role in resetting interest rate expectations by professional investors and firm managers over the next 18 months. The median ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturers wrestle with disruptions, shortages and rising prices
Manufacturing growth eased from its breakneck pace in April as supply chain bottlenecks and material shortages increase backlogs and limit production efforts. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased to 60.7 in April from a 38-year high of 64.7 in March. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion, and readings below 50 indicate a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Official unemployment number doesn’t tell full pandemic story
Friday’s headline January U3 (official) unemployment rate of 6.3% almost certainly undercounts the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. Our estimate implies a real unemployment rate of 7.5%, which we acknowledge could be much higher -- closer to 8.5%. An analysis of the ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Number of unemployed persons per job falls to 2
Recovery of the domestic labor force continues as the number of unemployed persons per job opening in the United States fell to 1.95 in September while individuals continued to be recalled to work. Given the fact that 906,000 private sector workers were recalled in October with permanent job losses largely unchanged at 4.5 million, it is important to note ... READ MORE >