Forward-looking components in the RSM US Middle Market Business Index imply that midsize firms are ready to expand hiring and bolster compensation over the next six months as the real economy reopens and enters a hyper-competitive post-pandemic period. We expect middle-market hiring will boom ahead of ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Personal income rises 21.1% in March, with savings up 27.6%
The impact of the $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid put on the table this year bolstered U.S. personal income by a record 21.1% in March, resulting in a 4.2% increase in personal spending. Income excluding government transfers increased by 0.9% on the month. Compensation increased by 1%, while wages and ... READ MORE >
Fed policy decision: Steady as U.S. economy at inflection point
The American economy has entered a period of recovery that will be followed by a robust expansion, leading it almost surely to the pre-pandemic level of output in the near term and a return to full employment in 2022. With the end of the pandemic in sight, the Federal Open Market Committee, at its ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. The composition of growth was rock solid as American households increased spending by ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
A robust 6.4% growth rate in economic activity during the first three months of the year narrowed the output gap in gross domestic product and brought it closer to being erased. We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Surging RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index implies a robust recovery
For the second month in a row, manufacturers’ optimism surged in April, which implies further acceleration in overall industrial production and manufacturing conditions. This is also the second consecutive month that the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index stood at least 2 standard deviations above ... READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, to be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. A wider-than-anticipated trade deficit, which we expect to subtract 1.5% from overall growth, and a ... READ MORE >
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year—policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle—finally appear to be bottoming out. Although those events are still running their course, the rapid response by the scientific community and by ... READ MORE >
Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the roughly 0.60% observed last year, we expect the yield to rise to 1.9% at the end of the year as the economy reopens and the nearly $6 trillion in ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: You can’t always get what you want
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on the federal funds rate Wednesday will for the most part be a non-market-moving event, with the Federal Reserve looking to convey a consistent outlook on the direction of policy and rates. While investors will be looking for an upgrade to the economic ... READ MORE >