There are arguably enough positive indications to begin planning for a return to normal commercial activity. Here is a sampling of what’s to come, or better put, what the data is suggesting. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Understanding what is involved in a $2 trillion infrastructure project
A project that modernizes the national infrastructure means increased jobs, productivity and growth, all of which will result in a meaningful increase in the living standards for Americans. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rational exuberance and the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
The manufacturing sector is signaling extreme confidence in a rapid end to the pandemic-induced economic shutdown and to the global manufacturing recession that preceded it. … READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
We expect a net increase in total employment of 1 million, with risk of a much larger gain, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.8% when the March jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths is creating preconditions for what we expect to be a robust three-year economic recovery in the United Kingdom. This is captured by the recent improvement in domestic financial conditions to just under one standard deviation above neutral. … READ MORE >
Closing Canada’s output gap with a little help from its friends
While the American economy is expected to exceed its pre-pandemic projection by 0.2% this year, Canada is expected to undershoot by 3.2%. It is in every nation’s best interest to work for the success and health of all economies. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unexpected risk and a blocked Suez Canal
Just when optimism was returning to the global economy, a shortage of microchips threatens the automobile industry and a container ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, threatening the global supply chain. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturing sector leading the way out of recession
The economic downturn caused by the pandemic has had many unusual dynamics, and one of these is that the manufacturing sector, along with housing, is leading the way to recovery. … READ MORE >