Even as the economy begins to recover and jobs return, employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels in many key sectors. Two of these areas are education and health care, according to data recently released by the Labor Department. Overall, there are 1.3 million fewer educational and medical ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Building the new normal in health care
As the health care industry works toward a new normal—a time of recovery and eventual re-emergence from the pandemic—providers are taking a hard look at their physical infrastructure and rethinking what they will need in the future. This rethinking has been prompted in no small part by the ... READ MORE >
U.S. February Consumer Price Index: Inflation to rise from a low base
Much of the recent discussion around risks to the domestic economic outlook revolves around inflation or the ghost of something that has not materially haunted the American economy during the past four decades. While year-ago base effects will cause top-line estimates of pricing to rise in the coming ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to consider adjustments key to the middle market
Much is riding on the Federal Open Market Committee policy rate meeting next week, given recent changes in the economic landscape. Rising growth expectations, increasing interest rates, modestly higher inflation expectations and the recent challenge to the Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Bank of Canada to remain accommodative
We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will maintain its overnight target rate of 0.25% and retain its current policy of accommodation in its announcement on Wednesday. Expectations are that the effects of the pandemic will have dampened economic growth during the first quarter of this year, even as ... READ MORE >
The outlook for interest rates, in 11 charts
The yields on 10-year Treasury securities finally moved above 1% in January after 10 months of a public health crisis and economic distress. Though real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates remain negative – or nearly so – along the yield curve from overnight rates out to 10-year securities, there ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Amid talk about inflation, expectations have remained in check
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds had been slowly rising by roughly 9 basis points per month since last summer as the prospects for a vaccine and the economy improved. But since the end of January, there has been a jump of 50 basis points, with 10-year yields twice breaching 1.5% and then 1.6% in the ... READ MORE >
Flattening Phillips curve implies greater space to address economic needs
The traditional workhorse among policymakers attempting to estimate the tradeoff between employment and inflation has been the Phillips curve. During the past few decades, as the economy has shifted from one based on manufacturing to one based on information and digital technologies, this traditionally ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.2% for February understates the number of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. After almost one year, these circumstances can be used to inform policymakers, investors and firm managers around ... READ MORE >
February employment report: The devil really is in the details
On first glance, the February jobs report appears to be a preview of coming attractions as the American economy reflates and the fiscal firepower about to be unleashed turbocharges growth this year. While that is likely true, the underlying composition of the jobs report released by the U.S. Labor ... READ MORE >