U.S. labor market dynamics are clearly in an unusual place. The four-week moving average of first-time claims for unemployment insurance stands at 866,250, well above the monthly hiring pace of 661,000 posted in September and the highest since August. It will most likely be well above the top-line hiring ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Coronavirus update: Regarding immunity and the severity of infection
Early in the pandemic, public health officials warned that there is no prior immunity from the novel coronavirus. The global data on infections has backed that up and is a grim reminder of how little is known about the disease. In only nine months, more than a million lives have been taken among the 37 ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Glory days for used car salesmen
A confluence of trends linked to the pandemic – including the fleeing of millennials to the suburbs and a rising preference for private transportation – has driven the price of used automobiles up by the quickest monthly gain since 1969, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Plunging private equity deal flow in Canada
The economic distress from the coronavirus pandemic is hitting the Canadian private equity market hard. The number of deals reached in Canada this year through Oct. 6 fell to 194, which at that pace would represent a 60% decline from 2019, according to PitchBook. The value of the deals plunged as well, ... READ MORE >
SBA announces simplified PPP loan forgiveness
Some businesses that accepted financing under the Paycheck Protection Program now have a streamlined path to receiving the promised forgiveness of those loans, under new guidelines released late Thursday. The Small Business Administration, in consultation with the Treasury Department, announced ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Business development companies show continued risk
Business development companies are still lagging the market in a sign of persisting concern over the performance of loans to small and midsize businesses. Although default rates and losses in BDC loan portfolios have not been as dire as initially expected during the depth of the market panic in March, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention
Pandemic economics has brought about an interesting conundrum: The pace of firings in the economy remains above the monthly hiring data as the unemployment rate falls. Over the past six weeks, first-time claims for unemployment insurance have averaged 867,000, which clearly points to a stalling out of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Vanishing public-sector education jobs
One likely consequence of the failure by the political sector to agree on an additional round of fiscal aid will be further job losses. In our estimation, the hole blown in state and local balance sheets demands a $500 billion aid package to avoid laying off public sector workers including teachers, fire ... READ MORE >
Revising our growth forecast into 2021
Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter growth forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% and our first quarter 2021 forecast to 2.1% because of a likely lack of fiscal aid that will affect the economy and a growing uncertainty around the U.S. ... READ MORE >
Tracking the coronavirus: Preparing for the deluge
More than 7.6 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus as of the first weekend of October, according to statistics site Worldometer. The rate of new infections is increasing again, reaching 43,600 cases per day (see the first figure below) with 100,000 new cases reported in the past ... READ MORE >