The number of people in the United States who have lost either a permanent or a temporary job increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, another indication that hopes for a quick recovery from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown are not tethered to any economic reality. With the Sept. ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: The prime working age of discontent
The country is undergoing simultaneous plagues that are creating an employment catastrophe for men in their prime working years. There is the coronavirus plague, which attacks the poorest and unhealthiest among us, and then there is the plague of discontent among men unable to find suitable ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Rehiring slows as permanent job losses pile up
While the U.S. economy has rebounded and a nascent recovery is underway, the pace of workers being recalled is slowing and gains in the labor market are likely to become more difficult to come by. Essentially, the first order derivative (the rate of change) of growth is positive as the economy ... READ MORE >
Trump tests positive: Assessing its impact on the economy via financial markets
Financial markets reacted quickly overnight to the news that President Trump had tested positive for the novel coronavirus. At this point, we think that any impact on the economy can be measured through the financial channel, the confidence channel and through consumer spending, with a lag. Because ... READ MORE >
U.S. personal income dropped 2.7% as income supplements faded
The U.S. August personal income and spending report partially captured the loss of roughly $60 billion in income supplements as personal income declined 2.7%. Disposable income dropped 3.2%, or 3.5% after adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Despite those sharp ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Improvement stalls at elevated levels
It’s becoming clear that the improvement in the pace of firings has stalled as states continue to work through backlogs of claims for unemployment insurance and as filings for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance increase. There were 837,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 26, ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rises for second month in a row
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index rose for the second month in a row in September as economic conditions continued to improve. The index, which is based on surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment by regional Federal Reserve banks, came in at 0.7 standard deviations above expectations, up from ... READ MORE >
Managed care organizations weather the coronavirus storm
It’s no mystery that major parts of the health care sector took a significant hit to the bottom line this year as hospitals and other providers postponed elective procedures to make way for the influx of coronavirus patients. But one area of the health care sector -- managed care organizations -- has ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales continue to surge
Sales of new homes have continued to reach new heights, increasing by 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted rate of a little more than 1 million for August – the first time new home sales had eclipsed that mark since 2006. Compared to the same period a year earlier, sales surged 43.2%, according to data released ... READ MORE >