The Federal Reserve meeting this week will be the first under its new policy framework of average inflation targeting. While the Fed is in the process of moving toward forward guidance organized around inflation outcomes, we do not expect the central bank to announce the principles around which such a ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Higher food costs during the pandemic
The latest consumer price inflation data confirms what we all know – it costs more to eat during the pandemic, but it costs a lot less to drive to your favorite closed restaurant. Using February as the base month – the high point for the “all Items” consumer price index – the cost for food made at home ... READ MORE >
Consumer Price Index: Modest increase in prices, inflation expectations well anchored
Strong demand for transportation and energy, which increased by 1.3% and 0.9% in August, were the primary catalysts for the 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index. The all-important core CPI excluding food and energy rose by a similar amount. On a year-ago basis, prices climbed a muted 1.3% and ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims arrive above expectations
While the August U.S. employment report likely provided little impetus inside Washington to arrive at a compromise on another round of fiscal aid, the initial jobless claims report for the week ending Sept. 5 provided a stark contrast on domestic employment dynamics. With permanent job losses ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index update: Late summer upturn in risk
Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving. England and the European Union had agreed to an 11-month window ending Dec. 31 to produce what would normally take years of trade negotiations. If those talks were to fail in the remaining three months of the year, then the U.K. will face tariffs imposed by the ... READ MORE >
Pandemic economics: Prospects for permanent job losses rising
Just as the coronavirus pandemic is forcing profound changes in the way Americans live and behave, it will also likely prove to be a catalyst for permanent changes in the economy and labor force. The long-term damage to the economy is already reshaping notions of where we work, how we work and how ... READ MORE >
Oil prices show unprecedented volatility in 2020, and a path to recovery remains uncertain
The unprecedented imbalance the oil market has experienced for much of 2020 has garnered extraordinary responses from both oil producers and policymakers. Oil and gas companies have been forced to reposition themselves during the downturn in order to prepare for a comeback. Oil prices in the first half ... READ MORE >
August U.S. employment report: Strong hiring continues for fourth month
The return of workers to their jobs continued at a strong pace in August, with 1.371 million jobs added, including 238,000 temporary census workers. Excluding those census workers, who will be laid off at the end of September, the pace of hiring slowed to 1.1 million from 1.7 million in July. It is the ... READ MORE >
Methodological changes to jobless claims data are behind their slower pace
First-time jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted rate of 881,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, with non-seasonally adjusted claims falling to 833,000 as the Department of Labor introduced a new way to estimate the pace of firings in the domestic labor market. At the same time, the federal ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumers upgrade groceries in lieu of restaurant meals as pandemic continues
In July and August, specialty food retail sales grew to 30.6% and 28.1% of pre-pandemic levels, respectively, outpacing categories that saw strong sales growth in March 2020. With consumer packaged goods giants reducing their offerings to focus on replenishing core products, and grocers softening on ... READ MORE >