If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. In fact, 60% of the 4.4 million reported infections have occurred after Memorial Day, while the number of deaths attributed to ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Alternative data is flashing warning signs of a slowing economy
The decisions made in May to reopen parts of the country without proper safety protocols have brought about a resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has already swept through more than 40 states with no signs of stopping and now has the U.S. economy stalling. The evidence of this slowdown has been ... READ MORE >
Managing expectations of dollar strength during and after the pandemic
One of the hallmarks of the pandemic era of global finance has been the relative strength of the U.S. dollar despite the trillions of dollars put forward as fiscal aid to mitigate the economic damage. The greenback has increased 3.89% this year using the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index as our ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, by state: Texas passes 3 million
Texas became the fifth state to have processed 3 million initial filings for unemployment benefits since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus and the shutdown of local economies on March 7. Of the four other states (California, Florida, Georgia and New York), only New York has escaped the latest ... READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads across the nation, aid to hospitals lags
As Congress debates a new round of stimulus measures to blunt the human and economic toll of the coronavirus, it has an opportunity to rethink the way it supports those who are working on the front lines of the pandemic: health care providers. In recent weeks, the scope and severity of the pandemic ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Slowing economy pushes claims higher
A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their ... READ MORE >
More promise, more problems: Cyberattacks threaten life sciences companies researching COVID-19 vaccine
Picture this scenario: Researchers at a biotech company are working tirelessly on a potential coronavirus vaccine and planning to start a phase three clinical trial soon. This work results in more visibility for the company, and an influx of capital investment. But with that greater visibility and ... READ MORE >
There is no V in housing, but there is in recovery
The strong data for housing starts and permits in June released last week were just the opening act for the V-shaped recovery in housing. Existing home sales increased 4.72 million for June, up 20.7% from the previous month, according to data released on Wednesday by the National Association of ... READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. The lapse in aid to 20 million Americans that ... READ MORE >
Businesses already strained by COVID-19 should prepare for hurricane season
The Atlantic hurricane season is already off to a busy start, with six named storms having formed as of early July. And it is likely to get worse. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 70% chance that this hurricane season will be worse than normal, with just a 10% chance of being ... READ MORE >