We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. But those figures should be looked at with a skeptical eye. Pandemic economics is now ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Houston we have a problem: A rising curve of coronavirus infections
Notions of an easing pandemic ought to be gently dismissed as the pace of newly reported coronavirus cases appears ready to breach the April peak amid the accelerating spread of the virus in the South, Southwest and the vast interior of the country. The sustained issues in California and the ... READ MORE >
May U.S. personal income and spending: Impaired households in view
Income dynamics in May suggest that policymakers need to act sooner rather than later to support struggling American workers to avoid a quickly approaching fiscal cliff on July 31. On a year-ago basis, personal income excluding government transfers declined 6% following a revised 7.2% drop in ... READ MORE >
Nine states report significant increases in jobless claims
Nine states reported significant increases in first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 20 -- a sobering reminder of the ongoing economic toll of the coronavirus. Nationally, there were an additional 1.5 million people who woke up without a job during the week of June 20, which ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Why the wait for further aid?
In the war film “Tora! Tora! Tora!” U.S. Navy Captain John Earle refused to act in defense of Pearl Harbor until he received confirmation of an attack even as American naval assets exploded all around him. As such, some important policymakers appear to be waiting on confirmation that the U.S. ... READ MORE >
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. We anticipate that the decline in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be the largest single decline in the modern ... READ MORE >
The case for active investing has grown stronger recently, but can it last?
For much of the past decade, equity markets enjoyed a bull market that was accompanied by the rise in the popularity and outperformance of passive investment strategies. Investors were attracted to their low fees and were persuaded by the argument that active managers could not consistently beat the ... READ MORE >
A spring unlike any other: Ground rules for reopening
Thirty states have coronavirus reproduction rates of greater than one (R>1), meaning that each infected person is expected to spread the virus to more than one other person. This implies that the timing of reopening the economy may have been premature and the rules framing that reopening may have ... READ MORE >
RSM’s Joe Brusuelas decodes the Fed’s new Main Street Lending Program
The Federal Reserve launched its $600 billion Main Street Lending Program on Monday to provide bridge financing to midsize firms that have been hurt by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our estimation, the program over time will turn into an extraordinary opportunity for middle-market ... READ MORE >
Employment in black and white: Wage inequality
The American condition, no matter how one measures it, inevitably comes back to jobs and wages. Wage inequality, whether between men and women, or African-Americans and whites, is a real concern. Civil unrest in 350 of the 390 major metropolitan areas of the United States is not only a function of ... READ MORE >