We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, ... READ MORE >
What’s behind the resurgent housing market
With the onset of the coronavirus, a wave of uncertainty overtook the housing market and brought a swift halt to home sales and home building in March and April. But trends in May and June have shown that housing may be in the midst of a V-shaped recovery. After falling for three straight months, both ... READ MORE >
May retail sales soar, but will it continue?
Retail sales soared by 17.7% in May, the biggest month-over-month increase on record, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. The May figures, which easily beat analysts’ estimates but are still below pre-pandemic levels, was most likely fueled by a combination of pent-up demand and stimulus ... READ MORE >
Latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows a spike in optimism
Manufacturing firms in New York state were more optimistic in June that business conditions would be better in six months, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The index for future business conditions rose between May and June by 27.4 points ... READ MORE >
A not-so-great anniversary of Smoot-Hawley
This month marks the inauspicious 90th anniversary of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, perhaps the most ill-advised bill on the economy ever enacted. This bill, signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930, was the tipping point that pushed a nasty recession into the deep and ... READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of coronavirus: The prospect, and the cost, of a second wave
There are now more new cases of COVID-19 infections in the South and Southwest and other less densely populated areas of the country than in the previously hard-hit metropolitan centers of the East Coast, Chicago and Los Angeles. Cases per capita are exploding across the South and Southwest, with ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: Even with overall drop, nine states have big increases
Despite the overall drop in initial jobless claims in the latest week to 1.5 million, there were still nine states that reported significant increases in first-time applications for unemployment benefits. Yet 12 states reported significant decreases, which leaves a majority of states reporting ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: More questions than answers
It would be a mistake for policymakers or investors to discount the weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday in light of the recall of 2.7 million people to work in the May U.S. employment report. Over the past 12 weeks, 44.1 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, which is roughly ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy update: Fed signals that the worst is behind the U.S.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled that the worst of the pandemic-induced recession had passed as its summary of economic projections and “dot plot” rate forecast both implied that the zero interest-rate policy would remain in place throughout the central bank’s forecast horizon ... READ MORE >