The pace of first-time jobless claims declined for the ninth consecutive week, to 1.83 million, bringing the cumulative total of those who have lost jobs over the past 11 weeks to 42.6 million. In the era of pandemic economics, this is what constitutes good news. To put that in perspective, there are ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Preview: May U.S. employment report
We expect the U.S. economy to shed 7.8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to reach 21.5% when the May U.S. employment estimate is released on Friday. To put this in the proper context, the near real-time data implies that greater than 40 million people have lost employment and income in less than ... READ MORE >
Latest ISM manufacturing data shows signs of stabilization
The Institute for Supply Management index, a closely watched measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, rose in May for the first time since January, hinting that activity is beginning to stabilize following huge market disruptions created by the COVID-19 pandemic. The index improved to 43.1 in May from ... READ MORE >
California: A test case for reopening the New York metropolitan area
California is now in Stage 2 of its reopening program from the coronavirus lockdown. The crowds at Los Angeles beaches and the rise in newly reported cases in California should give the governors of New York and New Jersey something to consider as pressure mounts to reopen Jones Beach in New York and the ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector outlook less dire than last month, but still bleak
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index is now 4.2 standard deviations below normal conditions, an assessment of manufacturing conditions that is not as dire as last month, but dire nonetheless. Perhaps last month’s reading of about six standard deviations below normal was an indication from manufacturers ... READ MORE >
Bill would loosen restrictions in Paycheck Protection Program, making loan forgiveness easier
In a bipartisan vote, the House of Representatives passed the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act on May 28, loosening some restrictions on borrowers and making it easier to qualify for loan forgiveness. Under the bill, businesses would be given more time to use the loans and greater ... READ MORE >
Main Street Lending Program details released; program expected to start soon
The Federal Reserve took an important step toward the launch of the long-awaited Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) on Wednesday with the release of details about how the program will work. Based on these new details, which were released by the Boston Federal Reserve, and recent comments from Eric ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP is revised downward to a 5% contraction
A 10.5% decline in gross private investment was the primary driver of the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5% contraction, from a drop of 4.8%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Despite modest upward revisions to household consumption and robust residential ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: 40.7 million file first-time claims in 10 weeks
First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 23 increased by 2.123 million, bringing the total number of Americans who have filed for unemployment benefits to 40.76 million during the past 10 weeks. This data, released Thursday by the Department of Labor, strongly implies that the unemployment ... READ MORE >
The post-coronavirus economy: What to expect, and what is needed
We think that the U.S. economy has ended its pandemic-induced free fall. Tentative signs of the recession’s nadir are evident in near real-time data across the economy. It is now time to begin considering the shape of the post-pandemic economy: What it will look like, whose interests are given ... READ MORE >