While most states showed significant decreases in claims, four states — Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Georgia – reported significant increases. Jobless claims in Iowa also increased, which matches up with the news of the disease spreading through employees at meatpacking plants. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
American Badlands: 30 million unemployed in six weeks
In just over six weeks, 30.2 million Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed, which implies a near real-time unemployment rate of 23.8%. For the week ending April 25, approximately 3.83 million individuals filed for first-time unemployment claims. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to policy innovation ahead
In our estimation, the Fed is caught in the interstitial between its current rate, forward guidance polices and what we think will be a policy of yield curve control that will need to be put in place in 2021. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Depression-like shock, no depression
Depression-like shock, and no depression, are likely to be the mantras for policymakers following this morning’s 4.8% drop in U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product. That drop in output and the 7.6% decline in household consumption almost certainly understate the depth and breadth of the collapse in economic activity. … READ MORE >
Sources of deflation: Measuring distress in the real economy and financial markets
The magnitude of the economic shocks strongly implies that the probability of a general decline in prices — a dynamic known as deflation — is rising. This is happening despite $3.4 trillion in liquidity commitments and $2.89 trillion in fiscal support. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy in an era of pandemic economics
The Fed has put together nine different lending facilities and put forward liquidity commitments that run in the trillions. While we expect the Federal Open Market Committee to restate its commitment to keeping short-term rates as low as possible for as long as necessary, there will be more policy innovation coming in the near term. … READ MORE >
Testing, testing, testing: Preparing for the reopening of the economy
The idea of reopening the economy is somewhat of a misnomer. The economy will not return to normal all at once, and there is a clear risk of a second wave of the pandemic coming with the relaxation of shelter-in-place orders around the country. Since some governors are in the process of relaxing these restrictions, we thought this is the perfect opportunity to discuss the risks around those decisions. … READ MORE >
For private equity firms, valuations become a difficult question
How do private equity firms determine the fair value of their holdings when those values seem to change by the day, or even the hour, amid the economic havoc caused by the coronavirus? … READ MORE >
Claims for unemployment insurance continue to overwhelm state agencies
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined in all but five states for the week ending April 18, according to filings processed at state agencies. But this is only the fifth week since the economies of most states were shut down to stop the spread of the coronavirus, and the levels remain extraordinarily high. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims deteriorate further as concerns over wage deflation mount
American labor dynamics deteriorated further for the week ending April 18 as 4.427 million workers filed initial jobless claims, implying that the near real-time unemployment rate has increased to 21.1% at a minimum. … READ MORE >