Initial filings for unemployment benefits increased by 3.8 million in the week ending April 25, a decline of 603,000 from the previous week. More than 30.1 million claims have now been processed by the state agencies in the six weeks since the economies of most states were shut down to prevent the spread ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
American Badlands: 30 million unemployed in six weeks
In just over six weeks, 30.2 million Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed, which implies a near real-time unemployment rate of 23.8%. For the week ending April 25, approximately 3.83 million individuals filed for first-time unemployment claims. Once one accounts for those who have been ... READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to policy innovation ahead
The Federal Open Market Committee made no material changes to the path of monetary policy on Wednesday as it held the policy rate between zero and 25 basis points and maintained its forward-looking guidance on interest rates and asset purchases. The Fed in its statement included language that did not ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Depression-like shock, no depression
Depression-like shock, and no depression, are likely to be the mantras for policymakers following this morning’s 4.8% drop in U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product. That drop in output and the 7.6% decline in household consumption almost certainly understate the depth and breadth of the ... READ MORE >
Sources of deflation: Measuring distress in the real economy and financial markets
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy was clearly slowing down. It may seem like another era – before the economic toll of the coronavirus had set in and the equity markets collapsed. But even in that period of relative calm, conditions were ripe for the Fed to address a slowdown. Today ... READ MORE >
Monetary policy in an era of pandemic economics
The Federal Reserve has moved the federal funds rate to the zero bound in a series of swift responses to the outbreak of the coronavirus and the market’s anticipation of the shock to economic growth and market stability. The Fed has put together nine different lending facilities and put forward ... READ MORE >
Testing, testing, testing: Preparing for the reopening of the economy
The United States is on target for 50,000 deaths from the coronavirus by the end of this week as the number of infections are set to surpass 1 million in the coming weeks. It’s a sobering reminder that, despite the decline in newly reported cases, Americans remain at risk. At the same time, with ... READ MORE >
For private equity firms, valuations become a difficult question
Many RSM clients with portfolio companies have recently completed their year-end audits and are now preparing to do their first-quarter valuations. But while that has been a relatively straightforward proposition in recent years, it is anything but this year. How do private equity firms determine the fair ... READ MORE >
Claims for unemployment insurance continue to overwhelm state agencies
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined in all but five states for the week ending April 18, according to filings processed at state agencies and released on Thursday. But this is only the fifth week since the economies of most states were shut down to stop the spread of the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims deteriorate further as concerns over wage deflation mount
American labor dynamics deteriorated further for the week ending April 18 as 4.427 million workers filed initial jobless claims, implying that the near real-time unemployment rate has increased to 21.1% at a minimum. Over the past five weeks, the U.S. economy has shed 26.45 million jobs, which is ... READ MORE >