Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Lowell made a well-directed and much-needed statement on Friday in an attempt to begin taking back control of the narrative of the Fed’s response to the coronavirus outbreak. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
Negative yields increase as global coronavirus risk proliferates
With the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in late December, a global safe haven move by investors started in earnest around Jan. 14; as a result, negative-yielding debt has jumped back to $13.96 trillion as of Feb. 26, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. … READ MORE >
Canary in a coal mine: What money market spreads tell us about risk
The recent upset in financial markets has caused a move in sensitive risk spreads implying potential credit market challenges should the crisis spread into the real economy. … READ MORE >
How the Fed responds to economic downturns
Since the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has relied on manipulating expectations of short-term interest rates through cuts in its overnight policy rate in response to economic and manufacturing slowdowns. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads, what are the fiscal and monetary policy options?
Investors over the past few days have priced in three 25 basis-point cuts in the federal funds rate by the end of the year, with the first cut implied by the markets coming in June. This is somewhat misguided, given the nature of the global public health emergency that is … … READ MORE >
Seaports grow quiet amid trade tensions and the coronavirus outbreak
While commercial activity as measured by the comings and goings of shipping containers at the Los Angeles/Long Beach seaport has been dropping since the onset of the U.S. trade war, it is now threatened by a health crisis as the coronavirus spreads out of Asia. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP grew an estimated 1.5% in January; household consumption expected to be strongest segment in Q1
The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
For apparel industry, optimism over China trade deal gives way to concerns over virus outbreak
When middle market fashion and apparel leaders weighed moving production from China after the onset of tariffs in the second half of 2019, a global virus outbreak probably wasn’t part of the equation. … READ MORE >
Monitoring financial risk during pandemics
Global market participants have priced in the reopening of the Chinese economy on or around February 10, while the World Health Organization has cautioned that it is too early to declare the virus is at its peak. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus epidemic threatens technology global supply chain
Coronavirus deaths continue to rise Recently, we’ve seen significant volatility within the global market as investors continue to weigh the overall impact of the coronavirus (2019-nCoV). While a vaccine from drugmaker Gilead Sciences Inc. brings a glimmer of hope in finding a cure, the virus continues to spread rapidly throughout … … READ MORE >