We expect total employment to increase by 615,000 jobs when the jobs report for May is released on Friday, with the possibility of a strong month of growth because of what are diminished seasonal effects. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
CHART OF THE DAY: Lumber futures down 33% over past month
Lumber futures have declined 33% since May 7, which likely reflects a mix of falling demand as contractors—shaken by the 372% surge in lumber prices during the past two years—back off potential projects and the slow but steady return of supply. … READ MORE >
Recovery monitor: Economy set to expand as income and spending close pandemic deficits
The recession is rapidly becoming a memory as the economy shows remarkable signs of regaining its footing. Spending has reached its pre-pandemic level and we anticipate that June will mark the point at which the economy moves beyond recovering lost ground and enters expansion. … READ MORE >
How government payments during the pandemic improved household balance sheets
Consumers continued their pandemic-era rebalancing of household finances, shedding credit card debt and home equity lines of credit during the first quarter. … READ MORE >
April personal income and spending: Consumers push forward as demand for services surges
Demand for services jumped 1.1% in April as mass vaccinations accelerated, almost surely foreshadowing the coming surge in service spending that will be one of the defining narratives of the economy through the rest of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturing sentiment remains high as global supply chain constraints cap growth expectations
Surveys carried out by four of the six regional central banks reported elevated manufacturing conditions, though there was some slippage from the lofty levels of the previous month. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims set a new pandemic low
First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 22 declined to 406,000, a new pandemic-era low, putting them on track to breach the 400,000 level in the coming weeks and return to levels not seen since before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Issuance of negative-yielding debt declines as global reflation takes hold
During the pandemic, issuance of negative-yielding debt jumped from a pandemic low of $7.6 trillion in March 2020 to a pandemic peak of $18.2 trillion in December as investors sought safety. But that risk aversion appears to be ebbing. … READ MORE >
As markets for digital assets gyrate, regulators take notice
It is becoming increasingly likely that the froth in the markets for digital assets and the risk it brings are why federal authorities have begun signaling stepped-up scrutiny. … READ MORE >
Forecasting the dollar in a post-pandemic world
We expect that the value of the greenback will experience notable volatility with modest downward pressure, causing the dollar to decline in value against major trading currencies. … READ MORE >