The official unemployment rate in our estimation noticeably understates what we call the pandemic unemployment rate, which we estimate is 9.2%. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
First-time jobless claims decline to 787,000, implying modest improvement
The pace of first-time claims for unemployment insurance declined to an elevated 787,000 for the week ending Oct. 17, strongly suggesting that the economy is slowing in the fourth quarter. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: The economic benefits of increased testing and tracing
As global cases of COVID-19 top 40 million and infections in the United States again breach 50,000 per day, the specter of a second wave in Europe and the United States hangs over the domestic economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Hedge funds are faring well, but there is a range
Hedge funds are faring well after years of lackluster results, but the returns have not been uniformly strong. … READ MORE >
RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity shows an economy struggling to make up lost ground
We anticipate that gross domestic product in the Unites States will rebound at a 33.5% growth rate in the third quarter and 2.75% in the fourth quarter. … READ MORE >
There is no cooling the housing market as homebuilder confidence surges
The U.S. homebuilder confidence index continued to reach new heights, rising to 85 in October, according to data from the National Association of Home Builders released on Monday. … READ MORE >
The search for a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine
Americans are tired of the pandemic and the economic, health and political fallout we have collectively experienced from it. While there may be disagreement about the best way to approach the pandemic, it is generally held that a safe, effective COVID-19 vaccine that can be manufactured and distributed at scale is a critical step toward economic recovery. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A shifting holiday spending calendar
The pulling forward of Amazon Prime days to mid-October may have something to do with the changing expectations around spending, inventories and advertising ahead of the holiday season. … READ MORE >
Holiday sales to limp forward as pandemic weighs on economy
Holiday spending is likely to advance at a tepid 0.5% pace as households still reeling from the pandemic pull back on traditional and experiential holiday outlays. … READ MORE >
Agriculture sector gets a reprieve with rising foodstuff prices
Foodstuff commodity prices have recovered lost ground, returning to January levels after five straight months of declines from March to July. … READ MORE >