If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
Alternative data is flashing warning signs of a slowing economy
The story of the recent stall in the economy can be seen through a series of alternative and near real-time data, from restaurant reservations to public transit ridership to mobility data. … READ MORE >
Managing expectations of dollar strength during and after the pandemic
The greenback has increased 3.89% this year using the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index as our benchmark. Because of growing risks around the domestic management of the pandemic and increasing uncertainty around U.S. fiscal policy, we think that strength is at risk. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Coming attractions at the Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate decisions on July 29 will likely be remembered not for what is stated inside the policy communique. Rather, it will be long noted by what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says at his news conference afterward regarding policy change. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, by state: Texas passes 3 million
Texas became the fifth state to have processed 3 million initial filings for unemployment benefits since the onset of the novel coronavirus and the shutdown of local economies on March 7. … READ MORE >
As coronavirus spreads across the nation, aid to hospitals lags
As Congress debates a new round of stimulus measures to blunt the human and economic toll of the coronavirus, it has an opportunity to rethink the way it supports those who are working on the front lines of the pandemic: health care providers. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Slowing economy pushes claims higher
A series of alternative and near real-time data show that the economy began to slow on or around June 24. First-time jobless claims, which increased by 1.416 million for the week ending July 18, affirm the evolution of that data and point to risks around a slower pace of workers being recalled to their pre-pandemic jobs. … READ MORE >
More promise, more problems: Cyberattacks threaten life sciences companies researching COVID-19 vaccine
Picture this scenario: Researchers at a biotech company are working tirelessly on a potential coronavirus vaccine and planning to start a phase three clinical trial soon. This work results in more visibility for the company, and an influx of capital investment. But with that greater visibility and investment comes added … … READ MORE >
There is no V in housing, but there is in recovery
The strong data for housing starts and permits in June released last week were just the opening act for the V-shaped recovery in housing. Existing home sales increased 4.72 million for June, up 20.7% from the previous month, according to data released on Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >