Forecasters predict a 70% chance that this hurricane season will be worse than normal. For businesses already stretched thin by the coronavirus pandemic, the grim forecast comes at a perilous time. Sectors such as insurance, real estate, hospitality and health care are particularly vulnerable. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
What PPP loan data reveals about business and professional services and the economic recovery
The trajectory of the U.S. real economy hinges on the health of business and professional services firms and their ability to continue to employ many Americans. … READ MORE >
No vaccine, no recovery: The long road back
It is becoming quite clear that absent an accessible and widely distributed vaccine, that there will be no complete economic recovery. What originally was thought to be a 15 week problem has quickly evolved into something that looks more like a 15-month challenge. The premature reopening of the U.S. economy has resulted in an intensification of the pandemic, which is now causing growth in the economy to slow. The spread of the disease has resulted in a rollback of normal social and economic activity that poses significant risk to already subdued utilization of the full capacity to produce around the economy. Thus, any discussion of a full reopening and recovery of the domestic economy must be discussed within the context of a viable timetable that includes a vaccine. … READ MORE >
Grocers get margin relief, but it may only be temporary
Food retailers experienced better profit margins in June as they were able to pass along price increases to customers while their costs from suppliers dropped. … READ MORE >
A national pandemic shifts to the South and Southwest
The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside the major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses significant risk to growth in the second half of 2020. … READ MORE >
Housing remains a leader in the economic recovery
Housing continues to be a bright spot in the economy, with housing starts jumping 17.3% in June and housing permits rising 2.1% — the second straight month of gains . … READ MORE >
Global M&A remains soft, but that could change as elections approach
Global mergers and acquisitions have had a slower start to 2020 compared to other years as companies continue to work through business challenges resulting from the coronavirus. But that could change as the November elections approach. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims, state by state: 19 show significant increases
The spread of the coronavirus across the South and Southwest and into the Plains became apparent in states with statistically significant increases in initial jobless claims during the week ending July 11. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rose 7.5% in June as economies reopened
June retail sales were strong for a second straight month, fueled by the reopening of economies across the country and the continuation of pent-up demand from lockdowns earlier in the year. Overall retail sales rose by 7.5% in June, which followed May’s record 18.2% gain. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: 17 straight weeks above 1 million
Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly elevated, which implies persistent weakness in the domestic labor market as the economy absorbs further intensification of the coronavirus pandemic. … READ MORE >