The increase of 3.2 million in jobless claims for the week ending May 2 brings the cumulative total to 33.5 million during the past seven weeks. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
U.S. April employment report preview: A magnitude complete in itself
When the jobs report is released on Friday, we expect that there will be roughly 22 million jobs lost and that the unemployment rate will increase to 17%, both of which will understate the labor dynamics at play across the economy. … READ MORE >
ISM service sector index: More pain ahead
The Institute of Supply Management’s April report on the service sector, like its manufacturing cousin, implies that the domestic economy has not yet troughed. The ISM said on Tuesday that the forward-looking new orders and business activity components of its Non-Manufacturing Index declined to 32.9 and 26, well below the 41.8 top line. … READ MORE >
More details about the Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program is now eligible for those firms with $5 billion in annual revenue and up to 15,000 employees, an increase from $2.5 billion in revenue and 10,000 employees. In addition, the minimum loan size was lowered to $500,000 from $1 million. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index points to more damage ahead
The top-line ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 41.5 from 49.1, confirming that the economy sank into recession in March. The forward-looking new orders component declined to 27.1 from 42.2 and the employment sub-index collapsed to 27.5 from 43.8. … READ MORE >
New data on spread of coronavirus shows need for caution on relaxing restrictions
After a two-week period of fewer cases of the coronavirus, Americans are moving gingerly toward a resumption of normal social and professional activity. The next few weeks will be instructive as to the logic of reopening the economy, new infections and rising deaths. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims, state by state: Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Georgia report significant increases
While most states showed significant decreases in claims, four states — Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Georgia – reported significant increases. Jobless claims in Iowa also increased, which matches up with the news of the disease spreading through employees at meatpacking plants. … READ MORE >
American Badlands: 30 million unemployed in six weeks
In just over six weeks, 30.2 million Americans have joined the ranks of the unemployed, which implies a near real-time unemployment rate of 23.8%. For the week ending April 25, approximately 3.83 million individuals filed for first-time unemployment claims. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to policy innovation ahead
In our estimation, the Fed is caught in the interstitial between its current rate, forward guidance polices and what we think will be a policy of yield curve control that will need to be put in place in 2021. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Depression-like shock, no depression
Depression-like shock, and no depression, are likely to be the mantras for policymakers following this morning’s 4.8% drop in U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product. That drop in output and the 7.6% decline in household consumption almost certainly understate the depth and breadth of the collapse in economic activity. … READ MORE >