The American economy this year has been a story of strength and resilience that would have been hard to imagine a year ago. Easing inflation, a robust labor market and surging productivity are all fueling growth that is expected to continue throughout the year. In a recent wide-ranging conversation, ... READ MORE >
Economic outlook
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. While India and the United States remain areas of growth, the European Union appears to have slipped into recession and China is not experiencing the strong ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
Our economic outlook for Canada in 2022
Canada’s economy had a bumpy ride in the past year, as the promise of mass vaccinations was followed by supply chain disruptions, a global energy crisis and rising inflation. Looking ahead to next year, we see a Canadian economy continuing to recover, even as businesses and consumers contend with ... READ MORE >