Although a blanket tariff by the U.S. on all Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize in the first half of 2025, there is still cause for concern as selective U.S. tariffs are possible and would be disruptive to both countries’ economies. To illustrate this, look at energy and auto manufacturing — Canada’s industries with the highest exports to the U.S. … READ MORE >
exports
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. … READ MORE >
The de-risking of world trade: Industrial policy in an era of changing political economy
That time of free trade and the unfettered flow of capital has passed, and industrial policy will be the primary organizing framework for trade, technology transfers and global finance. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Southern California seaports processing record number of imports
The Los Angeles and Long Beach seaports are processing an extraordinary number of import containers. Although the three months after the holidays are generally the quietest of the year, this first quarter broke records and that activity points to the tip of the global economic recovery. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unexpected risk and a blocked Suez Canal
Just when optimism was returning to the global economy, a shortage of microchips threatens the automobile industry and a container ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, threatening the global supply chain. … READ MORE >
The impact of Brexit on U.S. manufacturing companies
Plenty of questions remain about what the specific impacts of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement will be, but some aspects – such as value-added tax and customs implications – have come into clearer focus in 2021. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: An impending end to the trade downdraft
Loaded import containers processed by U.S. seaports grew by an average of 20% in the fourth quarter. And export activity — which is still worrisome in terms of global economic demand — was down less than 2% over the last three months of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: West Coast container activity suggests an end-of-year pause in the recovery
Import activity at West Coast ports continues to anticipate robust consumer demand despite rising prices and the first hint of a pause caused by the resurgence in the coronavirus at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
The U.S. external sector: Trade channel to support 2021 recovery
We expect the trade channel to be a major part of the 2021 growth narrative as the Biden administration mends fences with the major American trade partners, excluding China, early next year. In fact, one can already observe the stirring in animal spirits in the global economy as the nascent … … READ MORE >
Global trade recovery: Imports at seaports rise, but exports are still in shock
Activity at North American seaports picked up over the summer, showing gains for the third straight month and indicating that the nascent recovery in the economy is underway. … READ MORE >