The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. If sustained, that impact would result in roughly a half percentage point shaved ... READ MORE >
exports
The de-risking of world trade: Industrial policy in an era of changing political economy
The death knell of globalization and free trade has been sounded over the past several years as nations have imposed tariffs and embraced industrial policies to protect vital industries. For the past five decades, the economics of efficiency has dominated the trade and financial framework. The logic ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Southern California seaports processing record number of imports
The Los Angeles and Long Beach seaports are processing an extraordinary number of import containers. Although the three months after the holidays are generally the quietest of the year, this first quarter broke records and that activity points to the tip of the global economic recovery. The number of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unexpected risk and a blocked Suez Canal
Just when we thought everything was gonna be all right – global vaccinations are on the rise along with forecasts for the global economy – a shortage of microchips threatens the automobile industry and a container ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, threatening the global supply chain. It’s always ... READ MORE >
The impact of Brexit on U.S. manufacturing companies
While Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016 and companies had about four years to prepare for the change, there was not much clarity on what Brexit would mean for companies until Dec. 24, 2020, when the post-Brexit trade deal—the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement—was finalized. Plenty of questions ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: An impending end to the trade downdraft
Activity at U.S. seaports indicates recovering domestic and international economies at the end of last year. Though tapering off a bit in December, loaded import containers processed grew by an average of 20% in the fourth quarter. And export activity -- which is still worrisome in terms of global ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: West Coast container activity suggests an end-of-year pause in the recovery
Import activity at West Coast ports continues to anticipate robust consumer demand despite rising prices and the first hint of a pause caused by the resurgence in the coronavirus at the end of the year. Seaports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and Seattle/Tacoma handled 22.2% more containers in ... READ MORE >
The U.S. external sector: Trade channel to support 2021 recovery
We expect the trade channel to be a major part of the 2021 growth narrative as the Biden administration mends fences with the major American trade partners, excluding China, early next year. In fact, one can already observe the stirring in animal spirits in the global economy as the nascent ... READ MORE >
Global trade recovery: Imports at seaports rise, but exports are still in shock
Activity at North American seaports picked up over the summer, showing gains for the third straight month and indicating that the nascent recovery in the economy is underway. Make no mistake: The global growth channel will be an important engine of activity early in the recovery and the United ... READ MORE >