The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the Fed. … READ MORE >
federal funds rate
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
Real federal funds rate illustrates that Fed policy is restrictive
With underlying inflation having fallen to between 2% and 2.5%, and the federal funds rate standing at 5.5%, capital investment has become prohibitively expensive for many businesses. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: Front-running the Fed’s first cut, and our new call on rates
We are updating our year-end rate call to 3.7% on the 10-year yield with risk of a move lower as growth, inflation and hiring cool. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. … READ MORE >
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. … READ MORE >
U.S. November jobs report: This is what a soft landing looks like
Through November this year, the American economy has produced 2.58 million jobs as inflation has eased from 6.4% to 3.2% all while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. … READ MORE >