The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
federal funds rate
Market Minute: Fed rate cuts on hold as inflation risks mount
Expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday while raising its inflation forecast and reducing its estimates for growth and employment. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts its policy rate and sets end to quantitative tightening
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% on Wednesday while announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by Dec. 1. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation continues to cool as tariffs begin to take hold
Job creation continued to cool in May as the economy created 139,000 jobs, just above the RSM forecast of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate cuts as inflation flattens out and policy changes loom
The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the Fed. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
Real federal funds rate illustrates that Fed policy is restrictive
With underlying inflation having fallen to between 2% and 2.5%, and the federal funds rate standing at 5.5%, capital investment has become prohibitively expensive for many businesses. … READ MORE >