The Fed’s statement and forecasts draw a picture of a central bank that is on its heels and looking to ascertain the difference between signal and noise amid rising uncertainty as it determines its policy … READ MORE >
federal open market committee
Morning market minute: The questions that Powell will not want to answer
Jerome Powell’s answers to questions about trade and fiscal policy will drive volatility given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the American dollar to growing policy uncertainty. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
FOMC holds rates steady but is divided on their direction
Seven FOMC members supported one cut this year, eight supported two and four supported no cuts. Overall, the forecast projects a 5.125% rate later this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index turned positive in January and has centered at 0,25 standard deviations above zero since March, indicating the normal level of risk priced into financial securities. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks, are likely to provide a near-synchronized set of rate cuts this year and next. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. … READ MORE >