Ahead of this week’s policy decision by the Federal Open Market Committee and the publication of the November personal consumption expenditures price index, a look at the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate is in order. In the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections released in September, that ... READ MORE >
federal open market committee
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. Given current growth and inflation dynamics, we expect that the Fed’s rate cuts will then be on pause until March at the ... READ MORE >
FOMC holds rates steady but is divided on their direction
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday while signaling through its dot plot forecast of interest rates that the committee would support at least one 25 basis-point rate cut this year. But the committee was split on the ... READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
Monetary policy has reached a pivot point, bringing an increased probability for sustained growth and easing fears of a premature end to the business cycle. This improvement should underscore the positive outlook that will be featured in the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. But we anticipate that the median rate forecast implied by the dot plot will indicate that the committee now expects two rate cuts this year, for a cumulative rate ... READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve is looking to cut its policy rate three times this year, according to information inferred from the Summary of Economic Projections and policy statement released on Wednesday. The cuts would reduce the policy rate by 75 basis points, from the current range between 5.25% and 5.5% ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. Our forecast implies no change in the federal funds rate, which will remain in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. The FOMC’s median projection for interest rates in its dot ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left is its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintained the pace of quantitative tightening. The committee, however, made major changes to the policy statement that implies a coming upward revision in its economic forecast and a shift ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. The hold in the policy rate should be understood as the Federal Reserve again signaling that it considers rates sufficiently restrictive to bring down ... READ MORE >
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. The Fed also reduced its inflation forecast for next year to 2.8% from 3.3%, and to 2.4% from 2.5% for 2025, which ... READ MORE >