The Federal Reserve is looking to cut its policy rate three times this year, according to information inferred from the Summary of Economic Projections and policy statement released on Wednesday. The cuts would reduce the policy rate by 75 basis points, from the current range between 5.25% and 5.5% ... READ MORE >
federal open market committee
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. Our forecast implies no change in the federal funds rate, which will remain in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. The FOMC’s median projection for interest rates in its dot ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left is its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintained the pace of quantitative tightening. The committee, however, made major changes to the policy statement that implies a coming upward revision in its economic forecast and a shift ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. The hold in the policy rate should be understood as the Federal Reserve again signaling that it considers rates sufficiently restrictive to bring down ... READ MORE >
Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. The Fed also reduced its inflation forecast for next year to 2.8% from 3.3%, and to 2.4% from 2.5% for 2025, which ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. While the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep its policy statement largely unchanged, that statement ... READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields, with the 10-year increasing by 124 basis points from 3.74% on July 19 to 4.98% on Oct. 19, the Fed intends to create policy space to ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% on Wednesday while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession, which it did just six months ago, and is increasingly confident of a soft landing in the ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >