A simple look at PCE, core PCE, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and core PPI illustrates that they all reside above the current federal funds policy rate, not to mention the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. … READ MORE >
federal open market committee
Fed tilts hawkish as Warsh promises price stability
While we think that the July FOMC meeting will be a status quo event, the September meeting will be a live policy meeting where the committee could see movement toward a rate hike if not an outright increase. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: At the FOMC meeting, a rate hike to be determined later
Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: FOMC preview and Powell’s big decision
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds policy rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as war raises uncertainty
The evolving oil shock has raised uncertainty in the economy, which will result in a period of risk management by the central bank. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Transmission of monetary policy to the real economy
When the fiscal authority is at odds with monetary authority, then the transmission mechanism starts to break down. … READ MORE >
Fed delivers hawkish cut, raising the bar for future reductions
The tone and tenor of the FOMC’s statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell afterward substantially raised the bar for a rate cut in January. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Factions at the Fed as the fog begins to lift
Expect a contentious Fed meeting next week, with the central bank lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s financial conditions and its monetary policy path
Policy rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are in response to both countries’ economies absorbing adverse policy shocks along with a slowing pace of hiring and wage growth. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts its policy rate and sets end to quantitative tightening
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% on Wednesday while announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by Dec. 1. … READ MORE >