Much is riding on the Federal Open Market Committee policy rate meeting next week, given recent changes in the economic landscape. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
The outlook for interest rates, in 11 charts
We now expect the 10-year yield to rise to 1.75% by the end of the year, with risk of a move at or above 2% on the back of what we expect to be the best year of growth since 1984. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Amid talk about inflation, expectations have remained in check
Despite all the talk about rising inflation, there’s not much difference in inflation expectations between last year and this year, or last month and this month, according to an economic model. … READ MORE >
Flattening Phillips curve implies greater space to address economic needs
During the past few decades, as the economy has shifted from one based on manufacturing to one based on information and digital technologies, this traditionally inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation as shown in the Phillips curve has flattened. … READ MORE >
Powell statement: Market challenging Fed’s credibility on inflation targeting
The knee-jerk market response that sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.54% during Thursday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell implies that the Fed may have to act to dampen yields at the long end of the curve. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation outlook: Don’t believe the hype
Concerns about inflation risk are premature and overblown. Current monetary policy is well-positioned to support the reflation of the domestic economy, a return to full economic potential later this year and full employment over the next three years. … READ MORE >
Low interest rates offer private equity firms a rare opportunity to invest
As the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates at historically low levels, private equity firms in the middle market have an opportunity to take advantage of those low rates and make capital investments that will pay off in the future. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The 10-year Treasury yield goes its own way
Fixed-income investors are clearly pricing in a general reflation of the economy this year that will produce growth rates not observed since the late 1990’s. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Fed adds to debate on further fiscal aid
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the arrival of vaccines has bolstered the economic outlook for later this year and noted the role of monetary policy in combating the adverse economic impact caused by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
How regulatory oversight may change at five agencies under Biden
With President Joe Biden’s cabinet taking shape, regulated entities in the financial services industry like banks, specialty lenders and capital markets firms are starting to get a better picture of what changes might be in store. … READ MORE >