We will soon enter the era of post-pandemic economics that will feature stratospheric government deficits necessitating the turn to a seldom used policy called yield curve control. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Manufacturing sector outlook less dire than last month, but still bleak
The RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index is now 4.2 standard deviations below normal conditions, an assessment of manufacturing conditions that is not as dire as last month, but dire nonetheless. Perhaps last month’s reading of about six standard deviations below normal was an indication from manufacturers that things couldn’t possibly get … … READ MORE >
More details about the Main Street Lending Program
The Main Street Lending Program is now eligible for those firms with $5 billion in annual revenue and up to 15,000 employees, an increase from $2.5 billion in revenue and 10,000 employees. In addition, the minimum loan size was lowered to $500,000 from $1 million. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Prelude to policy innovation ahead
In our estimation, the Fed is caught in the interstitial between its current rate, forward guidance polices and what we think will be a policy of yield curve control that will need to be put in place in 2021. … READ MORE >
Fed sets up $2.3 trillion in liquidity commitments, introduces Main Street Lending Program
The Federal Reserve made history on Thursday by moving aggressively to provide up to $2.3 trillion in liquidity commitments to support the economy. This policy intends to bolster households, small and medium-sized firms, and the ability of state and local governments to float debt to ensure critical services during the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve backstops Paycheck Protection Program
The Federal Reserve today put forward another in a series of lending facilities intended to fortify the economy as it absorbs three large shocks that are cascading across the U.S. economic landscape. … READ MORE >
The swift and significant monetary and fiscal policy responses to the coronavirus
March 2020 has been a month for the ages – one that fiscal and monetary policymakers will never forget. Congress put forward roughly $2.2 trillion, or equal to 11.4% of gross domestic product, in fiscal aid to address current and coming economic difficulties around the country. … READ MORE >
Fed takes robust action to backstop the economy and financial markets
The Federal Reserve moved aggressively on Monday to mitigate what is going to be a severe disruption in the American economy by committing to an open-ended quantitative easing program and the construction of the Main Street Business Lending Program to support small and medium-sized firms. … READ MORE >
Revising growth lower: A reset is coming for the U.S. economy
The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and will affect growth over the next three to four years.
U.S. and global financial conditions imply economies at risk
Global financial conditions continue to flash red as global central banks acted forcefully to address the economic and financial effects of the COVID-19 virus. The Federal Reserve put a punctuation mark on monetary policy, dropping the fed funds rate back to the zero lower bound (ZLB) boosting asset purchases, opening dollar swap lines and reducing the rate it charges at its discount window. … READ MORE >