The central bank’s decisions this year will be shaped by the Trump administration’s policies on trade and immigration. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Morning market minute: Bond market volatility and the Federal Reserve
It is time for the Fed to drop its over-emphasis on data dependency and move to a more strategic view that takes into account the risks to the outlook that will be front and center this year and next. … READ MORE >
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Gone is the era of low inflation, low interest rates, a global savings glut and sagging aggregate demand. In its place is a new framework featuring scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Canada’s consumer price index rises by 1.8% as tax holiday takes hold
Canada’s CPI rose 1.8 per cent in December and declined 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis due to the tax holiday and disinflation forces throughout the economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales continued to grow in December
American consumers ended the year on a strong note, with total retail sales rising by 0.4%, … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Regime change and financial conditions
Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The tax over policy uncertainty is rising
Volatility across asset markets has been rising as investors adjust to changes in fiscal, trade and financial policies. Will this volatility spill into the real economy? … READ MORE >
American exceptionalism: Job gains of 256,000 to temper calls for further rate cuts
The American economy remains at full employment and will remain tight for the near future, which should temper calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further. … READ MORE >
Identifying countries at risk as the U.S. dollar surges
This rise in the dollar will cause economic challenges around the world, with those in the emerging markets likely to face greater adjustment problems as they face a rising cost of external debt paid in dollars. … READ MORE >