Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 … … READ MORE >
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Fed’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >
Hiring rebounded in November following weather-distorted October report
After the distortions In October’s jobs report caused by two hurricanes, the American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >
October job openings surge as labor market shows resilience
Total job openings in October rose to 7.74 million from 7.37 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >