fitted curve

Coronavirus infections in the United States have surged to new highs over the past week as the long-awaited third peak of its spread arrived well before the onset of winter. The resurgence spooked investors, who sent equity markets and the dollar tumbling on Monday. The numbers are hard to explain away. RSM’s model implies that infections will surpass ... READ MORE >

More than 7.6 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus as of the first weekend of October, according to statistics site Worldometer. The rate of new infections is increasing again, reaching 43,600 cases per day (see the first figure below) with 100,000 new cases reported in the past two days. Given that many states do not report ... READ MORE >

There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the insignificant levels that might allow for the return ... READ MORE >

Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. This comes as the number of coronavirus deaths will soon pass a grim milestone: 200,000 in the United States since the first death was recorded in February. ... READ MORE >

If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. In fact, 60% of the 4.4 million reported infections have occurred after Memorial Day, while the number of deaths attributed to the novel coronavirus is approaching 150,000. The ... READ MORE >

It has become increasingly clear that there will not be a meaningful domestic or global economic recovery until an effective coronavirus vaccine regimen is in place. The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside of the U.S. major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses significant risk to growth in the second half of ... READ MORE >

After four months of an economic shutdown and the continued spread of the coronavirus throughout the 50 states, it is unlikely that a miracle recovery from the virus will materialize. The primary responsibility of addressing the pandemic has been delegated to the states, which is contributing to a sense of policy uncertainty that is dampening economic ... READ MORE >

We continue to make the case that until there is a national testing, tracing and treatment regime in place, any talk of economic recovery is premature at best. The same could be said of the reopening of schools. The next source of social conflict linked to the pandemic is likely to be whether schools should open on schedule later this summer. When one ... READ MORE >