There is an interesting divide in our society that is eerily reminiscent of the monetary and trade policies among nations during the Great Depression. In the 1930s, nations that maintained the gold standard and adopted protectionist tariffs were slower to recover from the Depression than those that ... READ MORE >
fitted curve
California: A test case for reopening the New York metropolitan area
California is now in Stage 2 of its reopening program from the coronavirus lockdown. The crowds at Los Angeles beaches and the rise in newly reported cases in California should give the governors of New York and New Jersey something to consider as pressure mounts to reopen Jones Beach in New York and the ... READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: A difference in approach among states, and outcome
All states may have begun their reopening process, but there is a notable difference between the six states that have already experienced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic and those states where the pandemic might just be beginning. It is clear that there are problems in the South and Midwest ... READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: Another difficult milestone
The coronavirus outbreak continues its relentless spread from population centers on the coasts to the center of the country, even as newly reported cases overall decline. As the three figures below indicate, the number of new cases in the United States has dropped from a peak of 32,000 per day on April ... READ MORE >
A time to reflect on the reopening of state economies
There is an undeniable and understandable rush to reopen economies. The coronavirus has taken a measurable toll on American life, with the human cost measured in the anguish of each victim’s family, and the economic cost measured in unemployment claims and the prospect of lower household income. This ... READ MORE >
Bending the curve, reopening for business and avoiding the policy errors of the 1918-19 pandemic
Deaths attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic continue to mount, and data confirms that social distancing and a rigorous system of testing and tracing are necessary to slow the spread of the disease, and are working to mitigate the health crisis. Recent modeling work suggests that the slow adoption of social ... READ MORE >