Differences among the states in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak will undoubtedly affect the duration of the pandemic and the speed of the economic recovery in various regions of the country. … READ MORE >
fitted curve
California: A test case for reopening the New York metropolitan area
California is now in Stage 2 of its reopening program from the coronavirus lockdown. The crowds at Los Angeles beaches and the rise in newly reported cases in California should give the governors of New York and New Jersey something to consider as pressure mounts to reopen Jones Beach in New York and the Jersey shore. … READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: A difference in approach among states, and outcome
All states may have begun their reopening process, but there is a notable difference between the six states that have already experienced the worst of the coronavirus pandemic and those states where the pandemic might just be beginning. … READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of the coronavirus: Another difficult milestone
Our projections for the spread of the disease are for total U.S. cases to approach 1.5 million by the end of the week. Based on those projections, and given the current mortality rate of 6.0%, we expect the U.S. death toll to approach 90,000 by the end of the week. … READ MORE >
A time to reflect on the reopening of state economies
There is an undeniable and understandable rush to reopen economies. But as the coronavirus continues to spread, it is also undeniable that decisions made in May will reverberate for years to come. … READ MORE >
Bending the curve, reopening for business and avoiding the policy errors of the 1918-19 pandemic
Deaths attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic continue to mount, and data confirms that social distancing and a rigorous system of testing and tracing are necessary to slow the spread of the disease, and are working to mitigate the health crisis. Recent modeling work suggests that the slow adoption of social distancing practices as public policy and the concurrent slow adoption by individuals has increased the death toll in the United States, and will continue to do so until a vaccine or treatment regimen is developed. … READ MORE >