The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields, with the 10-year increasing by 124 basis points from 3.74% on July 19 to 4.98% on Oct. 19, the Fed intends to create policy space to ... READ MORE >
FOMC
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
If one wanted to create a confluence of cross-currents that make the job of policymakers more difficult, one might choose the combination of a red-hot economy, robust job gains, elevated inflation and an estimated $620 billion in potentially unrealized losses inside the banking ... READ MORE >
Labor costs slow, setting the stage for smaller Fed rate hike
Labor costs decelerated in the last quarter of 2022, adding to the justification for the Federal Reserve to slow its rate increases to 25 basis points after its meeting on Wednesday. The index showed that labor cost growth fell to 1.0% on a quarterly basis, and to 5.1% on a year-ago basis for all ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
The easing of inflationary pressures, a slower pace of consumer spending and hiring, and the moderation of wage increases are coalescing in such a fashion that the Federal Open Market Committee next week should be comfortable slowing its rate increases. We anticipate that the FOMC will increase its ... READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes while it assesses the impact of past increases. We expect at least a 50-basis-point hike in December, another 50-point hike in January and then ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate moving higher as Fed may prepare to slow pace of price stability campaign
We expect the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% when it publishes its policy decision on Nov. 2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will almost surely utilize the press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to note that at one point it ... READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
During the Federal Open Market Committee press conference this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he did not believe the economy is in recession, noting that the broader economy continued to grow and employment remains solid. Alongside Powell’s comments, the forward market is another source ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
The Federal Reserve’s price stability campaign advanced at its Wednesday meeting via a hike in the federal funds policy rate by 75 basis points to a range between 2.25 and 2.5%. The central bank stuck to its pace of balance sheet reduction. At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. The fourth boost to the lending rate this year will come amid clear signs of global and ... READ MORE >