The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. … READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Policy, price stability and balance sheet strategy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that it intends to achieve price stability, maximum sustainable employment and long-term growth despite the risk of a higher unemployment and a hard landing of the economy. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Powell caught in the crossfire
Next Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will result in the central bank hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 0.25% and 0.5%. … READ MORE >
Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it later this month would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Tapering explained
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on the Federal Reserve’s exit from its pandemic-era asset purchase program that has sent its balance sheet above $8.5 trillion. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Expect more talk, less action at the July meeting
Inflationary risk and the delta variant of the coronavirus will be front and center at next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, while policy changes will take a back seat. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Yield spread flattens as inflation trade unwinds
The Federal Open Market Committee unleashed a sharp change in market expectations following its Wednesday meeting, helping to curtail inflation fears. The idea of the first rate hike being pulled forward into 2023 with a possibility of 2022 elicited a change in the inflation trade and a resetting of market expectations of inflation. … READ MORE >
A 2021 ‘taper tantrum’? Not likely, but requires monitoring
The potential pulling back or altering the composition of the Fed’s accommodation to the economy via the financial channel will have an impact on interest rates that will directly affect what consumers pay for homes, autos and credit card interest. … READ MORE >