After years of the rupee declining in value, the forward markets expect the rupee to lose another 3.0% in each of the next five years. … READ MORE >
foreign exchange
U.S.-Japan yen intervention is imminent
Rate checks by the Bank of Japan and the Fed last week suggest that a broader intervention to prop up the yen and longer-term Treasury yields is imminent. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: In Argentina bailout, conditionality and collateral are absent
The Argentine peso lost 10% of its value in the first two weeks of October, pushing the overnight interest rate to 157%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: As dollar dominates FX, investors hedge exposure
The dollar was on one side of 89% of all international transactions, which is an increase from its 88% share in 2022. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The volatility smile in a time of trade disruption
One way to understand the financial impact of policy uncertainty is to look at the implied volatility of important bilateral currency pairs. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: India’s rising capital buffer and the end of its currency peg
As India has gained prominence in the global economy, its central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has wisely increased the level of foreign exchange holdings. … READ MORE >
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
The idea that the global economy can be organized around another currency seems out of place given the dollar’s ascendancy over the past 10 years during a period of uncertainty. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The strengthening dollar as the recovery takes hold
We expect the real effective exchange rate of the greenback to advance in value against a trade-weighted basket of currencies as growth and interest rate differentials drive capital flows into the U.S. this year. … READ MORE >