The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. … READ MORE >
GDP
Q3’19 GDP: Consumer keeps economy from drifting toward stall speed
Overall economic activity in the third quarter continued to decelerate with the top-line estimate indicating a 1.9% increase in growth and a 2% gain on a year-ago basis. Any way one slices this data set, one thing is clear: the U.S consumer is keeping the economy from sliding toward stall speed. … READ MORE >
Economic growth is running out of steam, RSM data shows
So far the domestic economy has absorbed two policy-induced shocks—a trade war with China and the slowing of immigration—and one exogenous oil supply shock that are all contributing to the story of slower growth. Once the economy slows to near 1% next year, recession risks will become elevated. … READ MORE >
US data deluge: cold cup of coffee on a sunny summer day
This morning’s data deluge provided a perfect snapshot of the U.S. economy at the current time. A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
First quarter GDP will show moderate growth, but with an asterisk
U.S. first quarter gross domestic product likely expanded 2.6 percent, a generous pace of growth given significant headwinds from a slowing global economy, the lengthy government shutdown and a rough winter. But put an asterisk next to it, as the first-quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary … … READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >