We expect the U.S. employment report to show a net increase of 75,000 in total employment, well below the three-month average of 157,000. … READ MORE >
General Motors strike
Start watching initial jobless claims as economy slows
Signals implying the slow demise of the decade-long economic recovery include the rising number of claims for unemployment insurance benefits. While we do not believe there is imminent risk of an explosion in demand for first-time benefits, once the pace of firings rises above 250,000 it likely marks an important turning point late in the business cycle. … READ MORE >