We are forecasting a 35.5% increase in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate when the third-quarter estimate is released on Thursday. That data will illustrate an enormous gap between actual and potential output that will take some time to close. … READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Revising our growth forecast into 2021
Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% growth. … READ MORE >
In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle
The Congressional Budget Office recently published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Beneath the outlook’s headline of rising debt-to-GDP ratios are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. economy. … READ MORE >
US gross domestic product: Actual vs. potential output
The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in coming days. … READ MORE >
Second-quarter GDP: A historic decline that could have been worse
The 32.9% decline in U.S. gross domestic product is the single largest decline in the report since the collection of the data began in 1947. But the reopening of the economy that begin around May 1 resulted in a far more muted decline that was tracking near 50% in April. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP is revised downward to a 5% contraction
A 10.5% decline in gross private investment was the primary driver of the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5% contraction, from a drop of 4.8%. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Depression-like shock, no depression
Depression-like shock, and no depression, are likely to be the mantras for policymakers following this morning’s 4.8% drop in U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product. That drop in output and the 7.6% decline in household consumption almost certainly understate the depth and breadth of the collapse in economic activity. … READ MORE >
RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity turns negative for first time since Great Recession
The RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity is pointing toward negative real GDP growth for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008-9. Our index of underlying economic activity has been pushed over the edge by what could be a seminal shift in the labor market and a structural break in the economy brought on by the outbreak of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >