The RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity is pointing toward negative real GDP growth for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008-9. Our index of underlying economic activity has been pushed over the edge by what could be a seminal shift in the labor market and a structural break in the economy brought on by the outbreak of the coronavirus. … READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Revising growth lower: A reset is coming for the U.S. economy
The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and will affect growth over the next three to four years.
Revising growth expectations down because of shocks from coronavirus
We are revising down our 2020 growth forecast because of supply, demand, and financial shocks rippling through the global and U.S. economies amid the spread of coronavirus. While we do not foresee a recession at this time because of expected fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, we believe economic growth will … … READ MORE >
The new tech economy is all about location, location, location
Economic output in the United States is increasingly revealing a geographic divide, with a greater share of gross domestic product being concentrated in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. … READ MORE >
Estimating the probability of a recession
Consensus estimates of the probability of a U.S. recession have receded and our analysis of monthly economic data imply that risks of a recession are negligible for the time being. … READ MORE >