The bond market, and not the equity market, provides perhaps the best assessment of the future of the economy. And these days, no matter how you parse the data, the bond market is telling a clear story: The corporate sector and the broader economy remain at risk. This stress is bleeding into state and ... READ MORE >
high-yield bonds
CHART OF THE DAY: What story is the high-yield bond market telling us?
Changes in stock and high-yield bond valuation levels have diverged since the start of September, a shift after largely tracking each other since the beginning of 2020. Stocks reached a peak in early September and have since returned four straight weeks of decline through the end of last week. Although ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Junk bonds are the canary in the coal mine
The recent surge in coronavirus infections is causing renewed concerns about economic growth and is likely exerting an indirect effect on the bond market, increasing the yield on low-rated/high-yield corporate bonds relative to the guaranteed yield of U.S. Treasury bonds. When the market becomes ... READ MORE >