We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >
inflation
PCE inflation continues to ease in June as income and spending gain
Top-line inflation in the personal consumption expenditures index increased in June by 0.1% and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: U.S. top-line growth to show solid increase
The Fed will maintain its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% when it meets at the end of July. But we anticipate a change in the committee’s policy statement that will signal a rate cut is on the table in September. … READ MORE >
Strong employment enables consumers to maintain spending
Strong employment has sustained consumer spending levels, Commerce Department data for June released on Tuesday shows. Rdriven by robust employment despite consumers’ depleted savings and high interest rates. As retailers look ahead to the remainder of 2024, they should anticipate steady yet moderated spending. … READ MORE >
Producer prices rise 0.2%, but signs still point to lower inflation in Fed’s key gauge
Despite the producer price index coming in stronger than expected on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s most important measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, should remain near zero in June. … READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
We think it will soon be time for the Fed to cut rates to avoid unnecessary damage to jobs and economic growth. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as the pandemic fiscal supports wane. … READ MORE >
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow to 0.26% from 0.30%. … READ MORE >
Retail demand shows weakness, leading to first inflation dip in 6 months
In a noteworthy turn, core goods prices have experienced a continued decline, contributing to the first dip in inflation in six months, according to April’s consumer price index. … READ MORE >