The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
inflation
US July CPI: Further moderation in inflation as Fed prepares policy pivot
Inflation continued to moderate in July as both topline and core inflation increased 0.2% while the former increased 2.9% from one year ago and the latter advanced 3.2%. The internals of the report tend to suggest that there will be further relief in the offing as housing and service inflation has plenty of room to ease further in the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
Key inflation metrics reflect a more-than-tolerable range of inflation that requires no further tightening of monetary policy. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation continues to ease in June as income and spending gain
Top-line inflation in the personal consumption expenditures index increased in June by 0.1% and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: U.S. top-line growth to show solid increase
The Fed will maintain its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% when it meets at the end of July. But we anticipate a change in the committee’s policy statement that will signal a rate cut is on the table in September. … READ MORE >
Strong employment enables consumers to maintain spending
Strong employment has sustained consumer spending levels, Commerce Department data for June released on Tuesday shows. Rdriven by robust employment despite consumers’ depleted savings and high interest rates. As retailers look ahead to the remainder of 2024, they should anticipate steady yet moderated spending. … READ MORE >
Producer prices rise 0.2%, but signs still point to lower inflation in Fed’s key gauge
Despite the producer price index coming in stronger than expected on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s most important measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, should remain near zero in June. … READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
We think it will soon be time for the Fed to cut rates to avoid unnecessary damage to jobs and economic growth. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. … READ MORE >