Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >
initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims increased again. Is it time to worry?
New filings for unemployment benefits continued to climb last week, reaching 248,000 and nearing our threshold of 250,000 that suggests risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Rising continuing claims and falling profits signal labor market strain
Since April, the number of continuing claims has broken the 1.9 million threshold twice, including last week—a level higher than any seen in 2019, before the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises as U.S. tariffs strain key industries
Canada’s latest jobs report showcased the impact of U.S. tariffs as key industries saw high job losses while the overall unemployment rate rose. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims rise as durable goods data is mixed
While the government layoffs contributed to the increase, new filings for jobless benefits in Washington accounted for only about 2,000 of the 22,000 overall increase. … READ MORE >
Initial claims rise slightly as federal layoffs and wildfire impact was muted
The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate falls to 6.6% as business sentiment improves
Canada’s economic resurgence appears well under way as January saw 76,000 new jobs and a lower unemployment rate as business sentiment improved. … READ MORE >
Even with pause, Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s response establish volatile new economic reality
While a reprieve on tariffs may be welcomed, the back-and-forth between the U.S. and Canada laid bare Canada’s economic vulnerability amid ongoing political volatility. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since April
Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to 211,000 for the last week of December, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >