The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week were unchanged at 264,000, remaining at their highest level since November 2021 as the robust labor market showed signs of softening. The data, reported by the Labor Department on Thursday, suggested that the previous spike in new filings for jobless benefits ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest since 2021
New filings for jobless benefits spiked by 28,000 last week, another sign of a softening labor market. Total new filings rose to 261,000, the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. There were no distortions to the report like the fraudulent claims in ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch up, yet labor market remains tight
Initial jobless claims inched up by 2,000 last week to 232,000, slightly below expectations, according to the Labor Department on Thursday. The data pointed to more softening in the labor market based on our preferred metric of the long-term trend—the 13-week moving average. But the upward ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims edge up but fraud spurs big downward revisions
Initial jobless claims underwent a significant downward revision after a spike in fraudulent claims led to a distortion in the data. New filings for jobless benefits released by the Labor Department on Thursday increased slightly by 4,000 last week, but the more noteworthy change was a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims drop as fraud claims are resolved
New filings for jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000 from 264,000, a sharp 8.3% drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The fall off came after fraudulent claims in Massachusetts—which were confirmed by state officials—had inflated the top-line number in the prior weeks. On a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims post largest increase in six weeks
Jobless claims last week rose back up to 242,000 after a brief one-week drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The increase underscored the upward trend in new filings for jobless benefits as the labor market continued to soften. New claims have remained consistently above the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise amid labor market slowdowns
New filings for jobless benefits rose for the third straight week to a near 18-month high, adding more signs of a slowdown in the labor market, one of the last defenses against a recession. New claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, increased by 2.1% to 245,000 for the week ending April ... READ MORE >