The labor market continued to show resilience even as higher interest rates took a further toll on pending home sales. Initial jobless claims inched up by only 2,000 last week to 204,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average, while pending home sales plunged by 7.1% in August after July's number ... READ MORE >
initial jobless claims
Falling jobless claims, existing home sales offer mixed economic picture
Even as the labor market remains tight, signs of a slowdown continue to appear in different pockets of the economy. The mixed signals from Thursday's data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales added to an economic picture that resembles a soft landing when the economy bends but does not ... READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level in seven months
Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000 last week, the fewest since February, as the labor market remained tight, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. New claims remained far below the threshold of 250,000 that we see as signaling a recession, raising the chance that the cooling ... READ MORE >
Business investment loses momentum in July
Business spending on equipment eked out a slight gain in July in what was a disappointing start for the investment component of the economy in the third quarter. Jobless claims, however, defied expectations again, dropping last week to the lowest level in August. Orders for capital goods that ... READ MORE >
Service sector growth eases in July
The service sector grew more slowly in July as it continued to show resilience despite recession concerns. The Institute for Supply Management's index for services inched down to 52.7 in July from 53.9 in June, indicating expansion for the seventh straight month. Underneath the top-line number, the ... READ MORE >
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The Fed is heading toward a pivotal period when disinflation and a still-resilient economy are giving more hope on the probability of a soft ... READ MORE >
Strong economic data signals another rate hike in July
A series of economic reports released on Thursday showed a much more resilient economy than expected heading into a crucial period when the Federal Reserve is on the verge of hiking interest rates again. While the data on job openings and jobless claims showed some softening inside the labor ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week were unchanged at 264,000, remaining at their highest level since November 2021 as the robust labor market showed signs of softening. The data, reported by the Labor Department on Thursday, suggested that the previous spike in new filings for jobless benefits ... READ MORE >