We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 2.75% as tariffs cloud outlook
The Bank of Canada reduced its key interest rate to 2.75 per cent on Wednesday amid tariffs and ongoing trade tensions. Rising uncertainty clouds Canada’s economic outlook as U.S. tariffs threaten to raise prices while thwarting growth. If further trade measures are introduced next month, expect the Bank of Canada … … READ MORE >
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Solid labor demand persists as U.S. economy adds 151,000 jobs in February
The American economy added 151,000 jobs in February, a sign that demand for labor remains solid amid the significant policy changes in Washington. … READ MORE >
Another delay in U.S. tariffs—what does this mean for Canada?
U.S. tariffs on some Canadian goods were delayed, again, in a familiar-yet-concerning development in the ongoing trade dispute. This latest pause, which is in place until April 2, applies to tariffs on goods covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Canada’s economic outlook remains clouded as tariff threats hang over … … READ MORE >
Market minute: Job growth, unemployment and federal contractors
We expect the U.S. jobs report for February to show a net increase in employment of 160,000 and an unemployment rate of 4%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Goods deflation, food inflation and a lack of exemptions
Consumers face the possibility of double-digit increases in many grocery items given the quantity of fruit and vegetables imported from those two countries. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs promise volatility, recession for Canada
Canada’s economic landscape is set to change dramatically as U.S. tariffs take effect. A recession is anticipated this year if all measures remain in place. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy surged last quarter, but U.S. tariff threats cloud 2025 forecast
Canada’s economy showed promising growth in the last quarter of 2024 and is poised to have a robust 2025—provided U.S. tariffs don’t take effect. … READ MORE >