The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
interest rates
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The mixed signals from data on job openings and the ISM manufacturing index, both released on Tuesday, offer a nuanced picture of the economy as the Federal Reserve transitions to a period to lower rates. During the transition of interest rates, not everything will go in the same direction. Elevated ... READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing it has achieved following a historic price shock. The central bank also laid out a path of monetary policy that suggests additional 25 ... READ MORE >
Canada’s consumer price index hits 2 per cent target
Canada's consumer price index hit the pivotal 2 per cent target in August as inflation continued a downward trajectory, according to Statistics Canada data released on Tuesday. The drop is thanks to lower gasoline prices compared to a year ago. The Bank of Canada will need to continue rate cuts amid ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales and industrial production beat expectations
Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.1% in August—much closer to our forecast of a 0.2% increase compared to the market consensus of a 0.2% decline. The stronger-than-expected retail sales data came as industrial production also topped forecasts in August, growing by 0.8% from a month ... READ MORE >