Retail sales topped forecasts in November, growing at a robust pace for the third month in a row. … READ MORE >
interest rates
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Resignation of Canada’s finance minister before release of fall economic statement adds to uncertainty
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing political uncertainty as financial challenges loom in 2025. … READ MORE >
How Canadian real estate leaders can adapt and succeed in a volatile 2025
Canadian real estate leaders must decide how to act in 2025 as further interest rate cuts loom, stricter immigration policies take effect and the federal government’s 10-year bonds are up. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3.25% as focus shifts to gap with U.S.
The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 3.25 per cent — an overdue move out of restrictive territory given that inflation has largely been tamed. Expect more rate cuts in early 2025 to get the economy onto an expansionary trajectory. The policy rate should come down to 2.75 … … READ MORE >
Canada’s job market cools as unemployment rises to 6.8%
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8 per cent — the highest since January 2017—as more people looked for work. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
While the term premium is modest, given the changing policy matrix amid a strong economy, we expect yields in the new year to move to 4.5% with risk of a move to 5% or higher. … READ MORE >