At present, and because of greater price volatility due to the sudden reopening of the economy, the surge in consumer demand and subsequent supply chain issues, expectations are for the inflation rate in the next few years to move above 2.3% before settling back to roughly 2.25% over time. … READ MORE >
interest rates
CHART OF THE DAY: Mortgage rates resume their downward march
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have drifted lower over the past couple of months, bringing mortgage rates to the lowest levels in nearly six months and well below historical levels. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve policy and interest rates in 10 charts
Why the FOMC decided to maintain is accommodative monetary policies, as told in 10 charts. … READ MORE >
What’s behind the recent decline in 10-year Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has dropped nearly 25 basis points to below 1.5%, touching 1.42% overnight on June 11 from its recent peak of 1.74% on March 31. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Recent increase shows progress on the path to normalization
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is approaching 1.7%, within 20 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. The move higher is in response to signs of an economic recovery and perceived risks around inflation. But sub-2% 10-year interest rates are far from what a healthy economy would support. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the 0.60% observed last year, we expect the yield to rise to 1.9% at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
American peak growth? Here is some much-needed context
One of the stories driving conversation today in financial markets, especially among fixed-income participants, is the idea that U.S. growth has peaked and that is why bond yields have declined recently. This discussion needs some context. … READ MORE >
The outlook for interest rates, in 11 charts
We now expect the 10-year yield to rise to 1.75% by the end of the year, with risk of a move at or above 2% on the back of what we expect to be the best year of growth since 1984. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The 10-year Treasury yield goes its own way
Fixed-income investors are clearly pricing in a general reflation of the economy this year that will produce growth rates not observed since the late 1990’s. … READ MORE >
Inflation-adjusted interest rates and investment in the future of Canada’s economy
A confluence of events and policy shifts has coalesced into a unique opportunity for the Canadian government and firms to make long-term strategic investments. … READ MORE >